Our Future World is a once-in-a-decade report from CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, which identifies seven global megatrends unfolding over the next 20 years. It builds on and looks back at the seminal report of the same name from 2012.

The seven megatrends identified are:

• 1) Adapting to climate change: with natural disasters expected to cost the Australian economy almost three times more in 2050 than in 2017, we can expect to be living in a more volatile climate, characterised by unprecedented weather events.
   
• 2) Leaner, cleaner and greener: an increased focus on potential solutions to our resource constraints through synthetic biology, alternative proteins, advanced recycling, and the net-zero energy transition. By 2025, renewables are expected to surpass coal as the primary energy source.
   
• 3) The escalating health imperative: the post-pandemic world has exacerbated existing health challenges posed by an ageing population and growing burden of chronic disease.  One in five Australians report high or very high levels of psychological distress and there is heightened risk of infectious diseases and pathogens resistant to modern antibiotics. There is now a burning platform to also respond to our health risks and improve health outcomes. 
   
• 4) Geopolitical shifts: an uncertain future, characterised by disrupted patterns of global trade, geopolitical tensions, and growing investment in defence. While the global economy shrunk by 3.2% in 2020, global military spend reached an all-time high of $2.9 trillion and Australia saw a 13% increase in cybercrime reported relative to the previous year.
   
• 5) Diving into digital: the pandemic fuelled a boom in digitisation, with teleworking, telehealth, online shopping and digital currencies becoming mainstream. Forty percent of Australians now work remotely on a regular basis and the future demand for digital workers is expected to increase by 79% from 2020 to 2025.
   
• 6) Increasingly autonomous: there has been an explosion in artificial intelligence (AI) discoveries and applications across practically all industry sectors over the past several years. Within the science domain the use of AI is rising with the number of peer-reviewed AI publications increasing nearly 12 times from 2000 to 2019. 
   
• 7) Unlocking the human dimension: a strong consumer and citizen push for decision makers to consider trust, transparency, fairness and environmental and social governance. While Australia saw a record level increase in public trust in institutions during the pandemic, this ‘trust bubble’ has since burst, with societal trust in business dropping by 7.9% and trust in government declining by 14.8% from 2020-21.

CSIRO Chief Executive Officer Dr Larry Marshall advises “Australia is at a pivotal point. There is a tidal wave of disruption on the way, and it’s critical we take steps now to get ahead of it”.

 He also projected that the next wave of digital innovation will generate approximately $10 trillion to $15 trillion globally.

“Australia has the highest wind and solar capacity of any developed nation and a wealth of critical energy minerals – we can be a leader in feeding the world’s hunger for clean energy,” Dr Marshall said

“Australia can tap into this to transform existing jobs and create new jobs and wealth while leveraging Artificial Intelligence to solve some of our greatest challenges, like out-thinking bushfires, accelerating vaccine development, predicting drought, or stabilising our energy grid.”

However, the report highlights that “consumers are demanding increased transparency from organisations, governments and scientists to maintain their trust, and there are concerns around the spread of misinformation. The rapid rate of change associated with technology is also driving new considerations around ethical design and deployment.”

Co-lead author Dr Claire Naughtin said: “Currently just under 70% of Australians do not trust AI systems but would be more willing to use these systems if appropriate ethical measures were in place.”

At first glance, these trends may seem obvious and already much talked about in boardrooms, and industry forums but the report reminds us that these are the same issues the community and government are talking about and that we must.  As Dr Marshall says, “We have the opportunity now to use science to invent the kind of world we want to live in – but we have to act, and we have to do it together.”

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