Renewables are on track to meet almost half of global electricity demand by the end of the decade, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.

The Renewables 2024 report finds that the world is set to add more than 5500GW of new renewable energy capacity between 2024 and 2030 – almost three times the increase seen between 2017 and 2023.

The report said China is set to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, based on current market trends and today's policy settings by governments.

That would make China home to almost half of the world’s total renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of a third in 2010.

While China is adding the biggest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.

In terms of technologies, solar PV alone is forecast to account for a massive 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity between now and 2030 – the result of the construction of new large solar power plants as well as an increase in rooftop solar installations by companies and households.

And despite ongoing challenges, the wind sector is also poised for a recovery, with the rate of expansion doubling between 2024 and 2030, compared with the period between 2017 and 2023. Already, wind and solar PV are the cheapest options to add new electricity generation in almost every country.

As a result of these trends, nearly 70 countries that collectively account for 80% of global renewable power capacity are poised to reach or surpass their current renewable ambitions for 2030.

The growth is not fully in line with the goal set by nearly 200 governments at the COP28 climate change conference in December 2023 to triple the world’s renewable capacity this decade – the report forecasts global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030.

But IEA analysis indicates that fully meeting the tripling target is entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action.

“Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. “This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security; it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world.”

Given the growing international focus on industrial competitiveness, solar PV manufacturing capacity is forecast to triple in both India and the United States by 2030, helping global diversification.

However, producing solar panels in the United States costs three times as much as in China, and in India, it is twice as expensive.

According to the report, policymakers should consider how to strike a balance between the additional costs and benefits of local manufacturing, weighing key priorities such as job creation and energy security.

The report said that Australia will add 53GW of renewable capacity in 2024-2030, with a nearly 65% share of solar PV, split between utility-scale (55%) distributed applications (40%) and systems dedicated to hydrogen production (5%).

Expanding state- and federal-level auctions, rising corporate demand and the high competitiveness of solar PV systems drive dynamic renewables growth. The VRE generation share is expected to achieve the highest value in the region, and also the highest for a large energy consumer with no cross-border interconnections, stressing the need for significant system flexibility investments.

In the Asia Pacific, progress among the region’s countries varies significantly, with Australia, Vietnam, India and Japan being the leaders in total and variable renewable shares in power generation.

Australia quadrupled its VRE share in 2016-2023 and is expected to further double it by 2030, making it one of the global pioneers in managing high VRE energy systems, the report said.

On renewable hydrogen, the report said that policy support accelerates electrolyser deployment however the expansion is limited due to regulatory uncertainties and insufficient offtake for demand.

It said global installed electrolyser capacity is forecast to increase by 47 GW over 2024-2030, reaching almost 50 GW by the end of the decade.

China and Europe account for over half (59%) of the expected global electrolyser installations while close to 40% is foreseen in the Middle East and North Africa, India, the United States and Australia.

Australia’s electrolyser base is expected to grow by 2.9 GW from export-oriented projects and some targeting transport applications driven both domestic and international financial incentives.

Projects are expected to benefit from the grants offered by the Federal Government’s planned hydrogen hubs as well from production premiums from competitive auctions under the Hydrogen Head start auction program.

The report said import demand in Europe and Japan is a forecast uncertainty for electrolyser deployment in Australia.

While no committed offtake agreements with consumers have been identified in either market, the forecast is optimistic some will emerge before 2030.

The recent announcement by Australia and Germany of a joint H2Global tender, and Japan’s decision to allow imported hydrogen to receive the subsidy in their new contracts for difference could help bring planned projects to financial close.

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